Phone: +47 22 00 47 39 /
I am a Geo-ecologist (MSc) and specialized in analyses of climate extremes in climate models (PhD, IMPRS ESM, Hamburg).
I study various factors that can drive changes in climate extremes, such as climate variability and anthropogenic factors (e.g., greenhouse gases and air pollution). I strive for interdisciplinary approaches and better integration of natural and social sciences. Particularly, I am interested in relating physical aspects of climate extremes to socio-economic impacts and questions related to adaptation and decision making.
- Contributing Author to IPCC AR5 WG1, Chapters 9 and 12
- Invited expert to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI)
- Expert member of the WMO CCl Task Team on Tailored Climate Information (TT-TCI)
- Co-lead WCRP Grand Challenges on Climate Extremes (GC Extremes)
Podcast with Nature Editor Michael White - Jana Sillmann and climate extremes
Selected past events:
Workshop on Understanding, Modeling and Predicting Climate Extremes (Oslo, October 5-7, 2015), Report
Extreme Events and Environments -E3S Future Earth workshop (Berlin, 2016)
FutureEarth-PROVIA-IPCC Workshop on Risk and Solutions (Stockholm, 2016)
Session on "Climate extremes and their implications in impact modelling studies", AGU Fall meeting 2016, San Francisco, USA (December 2016)
Session on "Climate extremes, biosphere and society: impacts, remote sensing, and feedbacks (co-organized)", EGU (Vienna, April 2017)
IPCC AR6 scoping meeting (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, May 2017)
Workshop on "Indicators for climate extremes and socio-economic impacts under different emission targets" (Ispra, Italy, October 2017)
Two most cited publications:
Sillmann, J., V. V. Kharin, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers and D. Bronaugh, 2013: Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Part 1: Model evaluation in the present climate. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 1716-1733, doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50203. DOWNLOAD LINK
Sillmann, J., V. V. Kharin, F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang and D. Bronaugh, 2013: Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Part 2: Future climate projections. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 2473-2493, doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50188. DOWNLOAD LINK
- CiXPAG - Interaction of Climate Extremes, Air Pollution and Agro-ecosystems Future food production, and consequently food security, is very sensitive to both climate change and air pollution. So far, little is known about how climate extremes and ozone pollution interact to affect agriculture or about the relative effectiveness of climate change adaptation and ozone regulation measures for various crops and regions.
- NAPEX Precipitation is arguably the most direct link between the climate and human society. We depend upon existing precipitation patterns for fresh water and food production, and global infrastructure is designed to withstand current precipitation extremes.
- HYPRE - HYdropower and PREcipitation trends Investigating historical and future precipitation trends in regions important for hydropower production
- Translating Weather Extremes into the Future – a case for Norway TWEX-Future.no will be taking a novel “Tales of future weather” approach. This approach suggests that scenarios tailored to a specific region and stakeholder in combination with numerical weather prediction models will offer a more realistic picture of what future weather might look like, hence facilitating adaptation planning and implementation.
- ClimateXL Weather and climate extremes are likely to be one of the largest societal challenges associated with climate change in this century. Under climate change, these extreme events will intensify and become more frequent, and consequently the risk of severe and costly damage for humans and infrastructure will increase.
- SUPER - SUb-daily Precipitation Extremes in highly-populated Regions The main objective of SUPER is to quantify the influence of anthropogenic activity on sub-daily extreme precipitation in highly populated regions
- ClimINVEST - Tools for climate-resilient investment Climate change is increasingly affecting financial assets across the globe. The ClimINVEST project brings scientists and investors together to develop tailored tools for assessing physical climate risk and identifying climate-resilient investment opportunities.
Publications and outreach at CICERO
- Jana Sillmann, Camilla Weum Stjern, Gunnar Myhre, Piers M. Forster, 2017 Slow and fast response of mean and extreme precipitation to different forcing in CMIP5 simulations Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, EN
- Noelia Otero, Jana Sillmann, Tim Butler, 2017 Assessment of an extended version of the Jenkinson-Collison classification on CMIP5 models over Europe Climate Dynamics, Springer Verlag, EN
- R Benestad, Jana Sillmann, Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir, Peter Guttorp, Michel d. S. Mesquita, Mari Tye, Petteri Uotila, Cathrine Fox Maule, Peter Thejll, Martin Drews, Kajsa Parding, 2017 New vigour involving statisticians to overcome ensemble fatigue Nature Climate Change, EN
- Kirien Whan, Francis W. Zwiers, Jana Sillmann, 2016 The influence of atmospheric blocking on extreme winter minimum temperatures in North America Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, EN
- Noelia Otero, Jana Sillmann, Jordan Schnell, Henning W. Rust, Tim Butler, 2016 Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe Environmental Research Letters, EN
- S. Russo, Andrea Marchese, Jana Sillmann, Giuseppina Immé, 2016 When will unusual heat waves become normal in a warming Africa? Environmental Research Letters, EN
- Gunnar Myhre, Piers M. Forster, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Øivind Hodnebrog, Jana Sillmann, Siv Gundrosen Aalbergsjø, Timothy Andrews, Olivier Boucher, G. Fulavegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Trond Iversen, Matthew Kasoar, V Kharin, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Jan Leo Oliviè, Thomas Benjamin Richardson, Drew Shindell, Keith P. Shine, Camilla Weum Stjern, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Francis W. Zwiers, 2016 PDRMIP: A Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project, Protocol and preliminary results Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), American Meteorological Society, EN
- Christoph Schaer, Nikolina Ban, Erich M. Fischer, Jan Rajczak, Juerg Schmidli, Christoph Frei, Filippo Giorgi, Thomas R. Karl, Elisabeth J. Kendon, Albert M. G. Klein Tank, Paul A. O'Gorman, Jana Sillmann, Xuebin Zhang, Francis W. Zwiers, 2016 Percentile indices for assessing changes in heavy precipitation events Climatic Change, Kluwer Academic Publishers, EN
- Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Piers M. Forster, Jana Sillmann, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, 2016 Local biomass burning is a dominant cause of the observed precipitation reduction in southern Africa Nature Communications, EN
- Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, Olivier Boucher, Jason. M. English, Peter J. Irvine, Andy Jones, Mark G. Lawrence, Michael MacCracken, Helene Østlie Muri, John C. Moore, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven J. Phipps, Jana Sillmann, Trude Storelvmo, Hailong Wang, Shingo Watanabe, 2015 The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): Simulation design and preliminary results Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, EN
- S. Russo, Jana Sillmann, Erich M. Fischer, 2015 Top ten European heatwaves since 1950 and their occurrence in the coming decades Environmental Research Letters, EN
- Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, Olivier Boucher, Jason. M. English, Peter J. Irvine, Andy Jones, Mark Lawrence, Mike MacCracken, Helene Østlie Muri, John C. Moore, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven J. Phipps, Jana Sillmann, Trude Storelvmo, Hailong Wang, Shingo Watanabe, 2015 The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): simulation design and preliminary results Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, Copernicus GmbH, EN
- Jana Sillmann, Timothy M. Lenton, Anders Levermann, Konrad Ott, Mike Hulme, François Benduhn, Joshua B. Horton, 2015 Climate emergencies do not justify engineering the climate Nature Climate Change, EN
- Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir, Jana Sillmann, R Benestad, 2014 Studying statistical methodology in climate research: Stats + climate workshop; Oslo, Norway, 11-13 November 2013 EOS : Transactions, American Geophysical Union, EN
- Charles L. Curry, Jana Sillmann, David Bronaugh, Kari Alterskjær, Jason N.S. Cole, Duoying Ji, Ben Kravitz, Jon Egill Kristjansson, John C. Moore, Helene Østlie Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, Shuting Yang, 2014 A multimodel examination of climate Extremes in an idealized geoengineering experiment Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union (AGU), EN
- M Donat, S. Wild, L. Alexander, T. Lippmann, Jana Sillmann, Francis W. Zwiers, 2014 Consistency of temperature and precipitation extremes across various global gridded in situ and reanalysis data sets Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, EN
- Jana Sillmann, M. G. Donat, J. C. Fyfe, Francis W. Zwiers, 2014 Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus Environmental Research Letters, EN
- S. Russo, A. Dosio, Rune Graversen, Jana Sillmann, H. Carrao, M.B. Dunbar, Andrew B. Singleton, P. Montagna, P. Barbosa, Jürgen V. Vogt, 2014 Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union (AGU), EN
- Jana Sillmann, Maalak Kallache, Mischa Croci-Maspoli, Richard W. Katz, 2011 Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe under the influence of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, EN
- Jana Sillmann, Mischa Croci-Maspoli, 2009 Present and future atmospheric blocking and its impact on European mean and extreme climate Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, EN
- Jana Sillmann, Erich Roeckner, 2008 Indices for extreme events in projections of anthropogenic climate change Climatic Change, Kluwer Academic Publishers, EN
- Jana Sillmann, 2009 Extreme climate events and Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking in present and future climate model simulations EN
- Erich Roeckner, Guy P. Brasseur, Marco A. Giorgetta, Daniela Jacob, Johann H. Jungclaus, Christian Reick, Jana Sillmann, 2006 Climate projections of the 21st century EN
- Climate services at Our Common Future CICERO researchers Jana Sillmann and Karianne de Bruin are co convening a session on climate services during Our Common Future in Paris.
- Heat waves in Africa every year from 2040? Climate analysis shows that periods of unusually hot weather are on the rise for one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change, even if the increase in global average temperature remains at a modest level.
- Making sense of future climate Did you believe only science fiction deal with futuretypes? Well, think again. A bunch of real scientists is carving out possible futuristic climate scenarios right now, and if you live in Norway, they might be zooming in on your hometown.
- Local fires reduce rainfall in dry season in southern Africa Emissions of particles, in particular soot, from local fires in southern Africa have increased due to human activities. Along with increasing global CO2 levels, these particles have led to a reduction in precipitation during the dry season in the region. The findings, published in a new Nature Communications paper by CICERO and the University of Leeds, illustrate that reducing or cleaning local fires may help to counteract reduced rainfall.