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Are you sure you want to do this? An interactive participatory experiment on extremes and uncertainty

News - News from CICERO

Published 24.05.2017

CICERO researcher Karianne de Bruin, together with Thordis Thorarinsdottir (NR) and Martin Drews (DTU) are convening a session on extremes and adaptation decision-making under uncertainty during the European Climate Change Adaptation (ECCA) Conference in Glasgow.

When: Wednesday June 7, from 11:00-12:45

Where: Room Alsh 1

Long-term planning and decision-making regarding fundamental societal infrastructure such as transportation, energy supply and water and drainage systems must account for a changing climate and extreme events.

Considerable challenges however continue to exist in understanding of climate extremes, the associated impacts and the identification of potential adaptation options. As a result, severe inherent uncertainties persist along all parts of the processing chain from climate projections to adaptation assessments, and it is critical that decision-making appropriately account for this.

This session will explore the current state-of-the-art and highlight the advantages of using fully probabilistic approaches that account for uncertainty both in climate projections and benefit assessments i.e. to turn information on uncertainty into a driver of change rather than a barrier.

In this context, the participants will discuss the linkages between the current scientific knowledge and evidence base of future climate extremes and the practical application of adaptation planning and decision-making to deal with the impacts of these extremes as well as with the associated high uncertainties.

Presentations:

Adaptation decision-making under climate extremes (Karianne de Bruin, Wageningen UR & CICERO)
The role of uncertainty in evidence based climate change adaptation: The case of sea level rise (Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Norwegian Computing Center)
Adaptation decision-making in Zanzibar’s clove plantations: a cost benefit analysis extended to light-touch uncertainty treatment (Alina Tepes, Basque Centre for Climate Change)
Urban SIS: Demonstration and impact assessment of using spatially and temporally distributed extreme rainfall inputs to urban flooding modeling (Lena Strömbäck)
Interactive session (Karianne de Bruin, Wageningen

Collaboration between ClimateXL project (Physical and statistical analysis of climate extremes in large datasets, Norwegian Research Council #243953/E10) and eSACP project (Statistical Analysis of Climate Projections, Nordforsk #744556)

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