Abatement of greenhouse gases: Does location matter?
Most of today’s climate policy is based on the assumption that the location of emissions reductions has no impact on the overall climate effect. However, this may not be the case if several gases and aerosols are affected simultaneously. Abatement measures do not only affect CO2, but may also have simultaneous impacts on the emissions of NOx, CO, CH4 and SO2 and aerosols and these species may cause significant additional radiative forcing. We have used a global 3-D chemical transport model and a radiative transfer model to study the impact on climate in terms of radiative forcing for a realistic change in location of the emissions from public power, cogeneration and district heating, and industrial combustion. Based on an assumed 10% reduction in CO2 emissions, resulting reductions in the emissions of other climate related species have been estimated. The total radiative forcing in A1B between 1990 and 2020 (reference case) is compared to the 10% reduction case applied to different regions (Europe, East Asia, and South America). The calculations show that the effects of non-CO2 species may be up to 70% of that of CO2 alone and that inclusion of such gases and their indirect effects may reduce the net effect of measures towards zero. Large variations between the regions are found for the net effect of the same package of emission reductions. Critical factors in the evaluation of the total climate effect of measures are i) which gases are affected by the measure, ii) the lifetime of the measure implemented, iii) time horizon over which the effects are considered and iv) the chemical, physical and meteorological conditions in the region. There are important policy implications of the results: Equal effects of a measure cannot be assumed if several gases are affected and if the measure is implemented in a different region. Thus, the design of emission reduction measures should be considered very thoroughly before implementation.
Berntsen, Terje, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Gunnar Myhre, Frode Stordal and Tore Flatlandsmo Berglen, 2006. Abatement of greenhouse gases: Does location matter?. Climatic Change, 74 (4): pp. 377-411.
- Språk: Engelsk
- Kategori: Tidsskriftartikler
- Tittel: Abatement of greenhouse gases: Does location matter?
- Tidsskrift: Climatic Change
- Volum: 74
- Nummer: 4
- Sidetall: 377-411